WASHINGTON (RNS)—Think former parishioners have left the pews because of sex scandals? Or because they no longer believe in God?

While some have departed for those reasons, the vast majority of former Catholics and former Protestants who now are unaffiliated with any faith have “just gradually drifted away,” the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life reported.

The new analysis, called “Faith in Flux: Changes in Religious Affiliation in the U.S.,” found 71 percent of both former Catholics and former Protestants said their decision to leave happened over time, unprompted by any one-time event.

“For many people, religious change is not a decision that’s reached at a particular point in time after careful deliberation of the pros and cons,” said Greg Smith, research fellow at the Washington-based Pew Forum. “There’s really a … gradual element to it.”

The new study is a follow-up to a wide-ranging Pew study of 35,000 Americans last year. The earlier study found, among other things, that 44 percent of Americans had moved away from the faith of their childhood, and one in 10 Americans are former Catholics. The new study tried to tease out the reasons behind those changes.

When former Catholics were asked specifically about clergy sex-abuse scandals, just 27 percent of those who are unaffiliated now, and 21 percent of Protestant converts, said it was an important reason for leaving the church. When asked an open-ended question, less than 3 percent of former Catholics cited pedophilia scandals as the main reason they left the church.

For people who changed affiliations within Protestantism, the key reasons for departing their childhood religion are finding a religion they liked better (58 percent) or unmet spiritual needs (51 percent).

Michael Lindsay, a sociologist of religion at Rice University, said the findings show people are making individualized decisions about their faith and are not driven by feelings of betrayal over a pastor’s scandal, for example, or how their kids were treated in the church nursery.

“Both among Catholics and Protestants … it’s more about sort of personal decision-making as opposed to discontent with somebody else,” he said.

Less than half of people now unaffiliated said the reason for their withdrawal from faith was because they “just do not believe in God” or most religious teachings.

Forty-two percent of former Catholics felt this way, as did 39 percent of former Protestants.

An even smaller percentage of former Catholics and Protestants—32 percent—said “modern science proves religion is superstition,” and about a quarter of them cited that as an important reason for their disaffiliation.

Overall, the reasons for changing faiths can range from disagreement with specific church tenets to seeking a new way to worship to marrying outside a childhood religion.

“I was struck in these data by the degree to which the reasons that people give for having changed religions are every bit as diverse as the religious landscape itself,” said Smith. “You cannot point to a single reason.”

For those who are unaffiliated now, though, three-quarters saw religious people as hypocritical, judgmental and insincere. Slightly more than 50 percent cited that image as an important reason why they no longer are affiliated with a faith.

But one in three of the unaffiliated appear open to return to a faith in the future, saying they “just have not yet found the right religion for them.”

Among ex-Catholics, 65 percent who are unaffiliated now said they “stopped believing” in church teaching,” along with 50 percent of those who became Protestants. Asked about the Catholic Church’s specific teachings on abortion and homosexuality, 56 percent of former Catholics who are unaffiliated now said it was an important reason for their departure, compared to 23 percent of former Catholics who are now Protestant.

The follow-up study to last year’s U.S. Religious Landscape Survey involved follow-up interviews with more than 2,800 people. The margin of error varied, from plus or minus 6.5 percentage points for those raised Catholic and now unaffiliated, to plus or minus 10 percentage points for those who were brought up and remain unaffiliated.

Because of the small sample size, researchers were unable to probe deeply into several groups of converts—the 3 percent of Protestants who became Catholics; or the 4 percent of Protestants and 3 percent of Catholics who embraced another faith.

Experts said the findings—which also indicated many people change faith more than once in their lifetimes—may give hope, or at least guidance, to religious leaders, who often don’t learn the specific reasons why worshippers leave their faith.

“It suggests there is a market out there,” Lindsay said. “If you lose somebody, it doesn’t necessarily mean you lose them for the rest of your career. If we’re thinking of it like a religious marketplace, you might lose the customer for a year, but you might bring them back with a new product line.”

NASHVILLE (RNS)—An invitation from a family member or friend is the most effective way to get people to attend church, a new survey shows, casting doubt on several time-tested methods used by churches to attract new members.

The other approaches—from broadcast commercials to information packets left on doorknobs—are far less effective, LifeWay Research reports.

A majority of respondents—67 percent—said an invitation from a family member was either somewhat or very effective. Likewise, 63 percent said an invitation from a friend or neighbor was effective.

In contrast, just 33 percent said an invitation left on a door hanger would be effective, while 31 percent said door-to-door visits from a church or faith community member would be effective.

Ed Stetzer, director of LifeWay Research, said the research shows people are open to invitations to church—but they need to be personal.

“Unbelievers next door still need a simple, personal invitation to talk, to be in community and to church,” said Stetzer, whose researchers were commissioned to do the survey by the Southern Baptist Convention’s North American Mission Board. “Clearly, relationships are important and work together with marketing.”

The survey says…

Researchers reported the following percentages of respondents thought these other modes of invitation were effective:

• letter in mailbox: 41 percent

• weekly religion section of a newspaper: 40 percent

• billboard or outdoor sign: 38 percent

• newspaper or magazine ad: 36 percent

• TV commercial: 34 percent

• radio commercial: 33 percent

• Website listing or ad: 31 percent

• E-mail message; 30 percent

• social networking site: 30 percent

The survey, conducted in December using an online panel, included a sample of more than 150,000 respondents and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Blair urges fight against Islamic extremism. American diplomacy must be accompanied by a defeat of religious extremism in the Muslim world, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said in Chicago. Speaking at a forum sponsored by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Blair pointed out the shortcomings of peaceful negotiation. Negotiation may solve short-term political issues, but the world must be prepared to fight deep-rooted religious extremism, he insisted.

Presbyterians defeat move to allow gay clergy. The Presbyterian Church (USA) has defeated a move—for the third time in 12 years—that would have allowed partnered gay and lesbian clergy, but gay rights groups cheered what they called a “historic shift” in the number of Presbyterians who supported the measure. Sixty-nine of the Presbyterians’ 173 presbyteries, or local governing bodies, voted in favor of a General Assembly action to rescind a church rule that requires clergy to abide by “fidelity in marriage … or chastity in singleness.” But the vote to rescind failed to recieve the required simple majority. The latest round of voting saw more support for the pro-gay measure than similar battles in the late 1990s and early 2000s; 28 presbyteries changed their votes from 2001 in this latest round—including presbyteries in conservative states such as Alabama, Georgia, Texas and Montana.

TCU cancels plan for gay housing. After receiving nationwide attention for plans to incorporate gay-themed housing into other on-campus communities, Texas Christian University in Fort Worth is postponing all eight themed housing communities to reassess their consistency with the school’s objectives. Provost and Academic Vice Chancellor Nowell Donovan will hear recommendations regarding “living learning” community programs from a faculty/staff/student committee. When the new guidelines take effect, they will apply to all campus living communities. TCU historically is associated with the Disciples of Christ.

Worldwide Church of God changes name. The Worldwide Church of God , which re-examined and later rebuked the teachings of founder Herbert W. Armstrong after his death in 1986, has changed its name to Grace Communion International. It’s the second name change for the denomination that Armstrong founded as the Radio Church of God in 1934, and church leaders say it’s a better reflection of a move toward more mainstream evangelical theology. Armstrong denied the Christian belief in the Trinity and took Old Testament law to heart. He urged followers to abide by ancient dietary restrictions, to observe traditional Hebrew festivals, to mark the Sabbath on Saturday and to reject Christmas, Easter and birthdays as pagan holidays. The Glendora, Calif.-based denomination says it lost half its members, 95 percent of its 1,000-person staff, millions of magazine readers and its college in Pasadena, Calif., when it officially repudiated Armstrong’s teachings and “prophetic speculation” in the mid-1990s. Grace Communion International claims 42,000 members in 900 congregations worldwide.

WASHINGTON (RNS)—Despite the economic downturn, more than half of actively religious donors plan to give the same or more to charitable causes in 2009 as they did last year, a new survey shows.

Cygnus Applied Research , a Chicago-based international research firm, completed a survey of more than 17,000 U.S. donors to charitable causes in February. It found 57 percent of actively religious donors said they expected to give more or the same amount to charitable causes as they did in 2008.

Researchers found that more than a third (37 percent) of donors described themselves as “actively religious.” About a quarter (24 percent) said they were “not at all religious” and 38 percent said they were “somewhere in between.”

More than a quarter (28 percent) of the most religious donors who planned to increase or maintain their level of giving cited a sense of obligation. They said they would do so because they made commitments before the economy worsened and intended to stick with them.

The study found 43 percent of actively religious respondents re-mained seriously committed to giving in the face of economic uncertainty, compared to 23 percent of those who were not religious at all.

“Religious conviction is the only relevant characteristic that statistically differentiates these highly committed donors from other respondents,” the study concluded.

About a quarter of actively religious donors said it was “too soon to tell” how much they would give in 2009; 17 percent said they expected to give less.

Last year, on average, actively religious donors gave considerably more to charitable causes than other donors surveyed.

The average total donation by actively religious donors totaled $13,356, which was 16 percent more than the average total contribution of all donors.

WASHINGTON (RNS)—Every year between 2001 and 2008, former President Bush’s calendar was cleared on the first Thursday in May to mark the National Day of Prayer in the White House East Room with prominent evangelicals.

Now the Obama White House is facing questions of inside-the-Beltway etiquette: Should Obama maintain the open door to conservative critics like James and Shirley Dobson, and if so, should they accept? Or will the White House have an official observance at all?

With those questions unanswered, the National Day of Prayer Task Force headed by Shirley Dobson is moving ahead with other plans.

“We’re not the coordinators of that event,” said Brian Toon, vice chairman of the task force. “That’s controlled completely by the White House. We have been honored to be guests at the event in the past, but we have not heard a peep from them.”

In years past, Toon said, a White House liaison has contacted the ministry at least a month in advance to ask about their participation in the White House events that featured music, Scripture readings and remarks by the president and Shirley Dobson.

She and her husband, Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, were seated prominently in the front row next to the president and first lady.

The White House, which usually does not officially announce events until shortly before they occur, declined to comment on whether it would hold an event this year, much less who would be invited.

This year, Dobson’s task force has opted to hold its annual event on Capitol Hill in the morning—at the same time when its representatives usually are at the White House.

“We do pray for the president at our (Capitol Hill) observance, and we have asked for a speaker from the Obama administration and we’re waiting for them to get back to us,” Toon said.

He insisted the group is “not politically inclined” towards Republicans or Democrats, even though early Obama policy changes—opening federal funding for embryonic stem cell research and international family planning groups—have riled Christian conservatives.

President Truman signed into law the National Day of Prayer in 1952. President Reagan amended the law in 1988 to stipulate the observances would be held the first Thursday in May.

The task force’s work has been criticized in recent years by some who say evangelical Christians have “hijacked” the observances. Task force representatives counter that their events reflect a Christian perspective, but all Americans are free to observe the day according to their religious viewpoints.

Prior to the Bush years, task force leaders held more low-key events, including at Lafayette Park across the street during the Clinton administration.

“There was no East Room event until George W.,” Toon said.

While he recalled being at White House receptions with rabbis and imams, Toon said the Capitol Hill event has tended to be “very Christian.”

Other task force-related events will include private pilots who fly and pray over the nation’s capitals and observances at national monuments, Indian reservations and town halls.

If there is no White House event this year, it would be a disappointment, Toon said.

“We’re not politically inclined either direction,” he said. “Our passion is to pray for all of our nation’s leaders and their families.”

But wherever they are in Washington, the president still will be in their prayers, he said.

“We can still do that from across the Mall,” he said.

As the nation’s economic crisis seeps further into congregations, budget cuts are the order of the day. But are churches reacting more to fear than facts? The financial pain for churches is real. But evidence is mixed about how much member giving is suffering right now and how widespread—or necessary—budget cutting has become.

If you listen to the conversation between pastors, however, it’s clearly the topic on top of their minds.

“I know of one (church finance) committee that wanted to make 33 percent cuts based on computer projections,” reported Michael Smith of First Baptist Church of Murfreesboro, Tenn. “Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed, the need was shared with the church, and the need for such a major cut evaporated.”

The majority of churches contacted for this article—such as Emerywood Baptist in High Point, N.C., and River Road Church, Baptist, in Richmond, Va.—have made significant budget cuts already this year, typically between 5 percent and 10 percent.

Others have cut staff and/or salaries deeply, like Wieuca Road Baptist in the upscale Buckhead area of Atlanta, which made deep 25 percent cuts in ministries and programs in 2008. After giving dropped even further, the budget axe fell on the staff. Three ministers were reduced to part-time, three more had salaries reduced, and a support staffer was terminated. All retirement funding for ministers was halted indefinitely.

But the recent budget slicing, particularly of staff and programs, has some long-time congregational experts worried. They say in some cases, the cuts are more drastic than warranted by the economic realities.

And budget cuts don’t happen in a financial vacuum. Particularly when they involve personnel, cuts often come with more serious consequences—staff tension, lost vision, delayed momentum and even despair, conflict and alienation.

Although the economic crisis only recently has come front and center in churches, some ob-servers already see serious unintended consequences surfacing.

“It seems to me there’s been an uptick in church conflict because of the economy,” said Chris Gambill of the Center for Congregational Health in Winston-Salem, N.C.

“The majority of calls I’ve gotten since January have been about church conflict. I think that’s more than coincidence,” said Gambill, interim vice president for the center, which offers consultation to churches and leadership training to clergy of many denominations.

“Whenever anxiety enters the system, there is more conflict. And the conflict often centers around staff.” One reason, Gambill said, is that when budget cuts become necessary, “many churches immediately go to personnel, because it’s such a large-ticket item.”

When church employees are terminated, however, the stakes are higher than in the corporate world.

“The church is a family and, like a family, has many levels of relationships,” said Phill Martin of Dallas, associate executive director of the National Association of Church Business Administration. “A church member may be a family member of an employee and the head of a committee. They may have 20-year friendships they bring to the decision table.”

“The church is an organism, not an organization,” added congregational consultant George Bullard of Columbia, S.C. “What happens to one part of the body happens to all the body.”

When congregations overreact to financial fears, Gambill said, it frequently is triggered by one anxious and influential church member who makes an impassioned appeal to carve up spending. “And sometimes some of the most anxious people get into positions of influence,” Gambill said.

For the last year, there’s been no shortage of bad economic news feeding congregational anxiety. Home sales and the mortgage industry unraveled, as well as construction and, more recently, the banks and stock market.

“I sense a lot of anxiety in this town, which is a banking town—you can feel it in the air,” reported Russ Dean, co-pastor with wife Amy at Park Road Baptist Church in Charlotte, N.C., which is home to troubled Wachovia and Bank of America.

Although the congregation “is directly connected to and affected by the banking economy,” Dean said, Park Road’s drop in giving has been traced to members’ investment losses. The church decision to slash its already downsized 2009 budget another 8.5 percent is “typical for Charlotte churches,” Dean said. But other congregations in town are suffering more, he said. “I know of only one person in Park Road who has lost a job, so to this point we have been very fortunate.”

Hunkered down 

Not so fortunate are the parishioners at St. James Episcopal Church in Manhattan, epicenter for the New York’s decimated financial sector. Unemployment has set new records, said parish manager John Scibilius, but even those still employed are “hunkered down” and “cutting spending out of fear.”

“We see far more anxiety than ever before. This is worse than 9-11,” said Scibilius, who was director of Lutheran response services at Ground Zero. “That was quick. Now there are new layoffs all the time. So, everyone is worried.”

Four full-time and four part-time employees were cut at the 5,000-member church, trimming the staff to 22. Personnel was an easy target, Scibilius said, because compensation accounted for 51 percent of the budget.

In the last quarter of 2008, 20 percent of American households reduced their charitable giving to congregations, according to a survey by the Barna Group.

But historical giving patterns suggest the most severe effects of a recession are felt by churches as much as a year later than the rest of the economy. One reason is the faithful usually wait as long as possible to reduce their church contributions, giving experts report.

Worst yet to come? 

That lag—and talk of a multi-year recession—could mean the worst is yet to come for American congregations.

In an online survey in February, the National Association of Church Business Administration found that 57 percent of its members’ congregations already had experienced a drop in contributions. Twenty percent of the respondents said their churches had been forced to lay off employees. And nearly half, 47 percent, said they had reduced or frozen staff compensation.

Most churches will put off layoffs as long as possible, said Martin and Bullard, both of whom consult with Christian churches of many denominations.

Some churches, in order to keep from laying off staff, are deciding not to pay retirement for a year or shifting health insurance costs to employees, said Bullard, a consultant in the Columbia Partnership.

Other coping measures recently imposed by congregations include giving employees unpaid furloughs and shifting some staff to part-time.

At First Baptist Church of Decatur near Atlanta, the 2009 budget of $1.6 million was cut 23 percent across the board. As an alternative to firing staff, ministerial salaries were reduced 10 percent and retirement benefits for all employees were cut 90 percent. Spending for operations, administration, missions and ministries weren’t spared either.

Cutting budgets, keeping staff 

Michael Clingenpeel, pastor of River Road in Richmond, Va., has a similar account.

“We cut our 2009 budget more than 10 percent, but we managed to keep staff employed,” he said.

“The cuts have come in program areas across the spectrum of our church’s life. Our finance committee has tried to be strategic and proportional in its cuts.”

Chris Gambill from the Center for Congregational Health cautions churches against eliminating staff if at all possible. “You set yourself back significantly, and it will take a long time to recover from it,” he said.

What a congregation does before a crisis hits—specifically its personnel practices, both good and bad—largely determines whether it will weather a financial storm well or land on the rocks, the experts said.

Systems and structures that produce strong churches in good economic times—clear job descriptions and supervisory lines, specific job expectations, and regular performance evaluations which are not tied solely to financial compensation—serve churches well in bad economic times, Martin stressed.

Even if congregations don’t practice such “wellness techniques” before a crisis hits, Bullard said, they still can minimize the damage by responding wisely.

More information is better 

For example, he said, take three weeks to explain the dilemma to the members.

“Sometimes they step up with more money or find innovative ways to handle the crisis,” he said.

And if not, members still are better prepared to acknowledge somebody has to go, he said, and the church can “lower the backlash” of layoffs by setting the criteria ahead of time.

“If you don’t have time for that,” he continued, “lay it out plainly to the congregation, before people line up behind their favorite staff person.”

Financial stress can even produce positive changes for a congregation, he said, as long as the members already have agreed on their vision and direction.

“You can see this as an opportunity to be more strategic with the staff,” Bullard advised.

“We’re making tough decisions. Why not make the decisions in the direction we’ve voted to go as a church?”

Meanwhile, giving has not dropped at First Baptist of Macon, Ga., and cuts have been avoided so far.

“I keep expecting the recession to hit us, and I’m sure it will, but not appreciably so far,” Pastor Bob Setzer said.

Remaining upbeat 

But for some churches, that other shoe may never drop. Although they have witnessed the same economic strains all around them, they have held steady or even seen an uptick in giving—in part, they say, because they have remained upbeat even in the face of threatening skies.

First Baptist in Rome, Ga., and Wilshire Baptist in Dallas both started trimming expenses as much as 10 percent early in 2008, which prevented drastic cuts this year and preserved most-needed ministries.

“We did this without any reductions in salaries or staff furloughs,” Rome Pastor Joel Snider said.

“Our cutbacks … have allowed us to increase funding for our ministries to the poor, such as support for our local free medical clinic, homeless shelter and direct benevolent support.’

Wilshire held expenses at 90 percent of budget in 2008, ending the year with a surplus instead of a deficit. In fact, the congregation set a record for overall giving, which included capital, endowment and special-missions giving.

“One of the lessons we learned last year is that it helps to be positive and encouraging,” Associate Pastor Mark Wingfield said. “even when uncertain, because to throw on the brakes and limit vision sends exactly the wrong message to the congregation—and likely impedes giving.

“Our stewardship-development committee has operated with a theology of God’s abundance rather than taking a perspective of scarcity.

“This viewpoint, I believe, is contagious in the congregation,” he added. “When some members are not able to contribute as they have in previous years, others are able to contribute more than in previous years.

“We can’t be scared away from preaching and teaching stewardship just because the national economy is in turmoil. The church must call Christians not to live in fear of what might happen but to be faithful with what they have today.”

“Caution, yes. Prudence, yes. But fear, no.”

WASHINGTON (ABP) — The Obama administration clarified its policy on embryonic stem-cell research April 17, issuing draft guidelines that will expand federal funding for the controversial research but retaining a ban on funding for its most ethically fraught versions.

The proposed guidelines, released by the National Institutes of Health, are likely to enable a vast expansion of federally funded research on embryonic stem cells.

Scientists have studied embryonic stem cells for more than a decade because of their potential to become any one of more than 200 types of tissues in the human body. The research, scientists say, has the potential to produce treatments for a wide array of injuries and degenerative conditions that are disabling and even fatal.

However, such stem-cell research has proven highly controversial, because the embryos are destroyed in the process of harvesting the stem cells.

President Bush effectively banned federal funding for new embryonic stem-cell research shortly after he took office. But Obama, following a campaign promise, signed an executive order March 9 rescinding the Bush policy.

Nonetheless, Obama’s order did not specifically address some of the more practical concerns about exactly what kinds of research the government would fund. The NIH proposal — to be submitted to a public-input process and review period before being finalized in mid-summer — further fleshes out the administration’s policies.

The new guidelines take a centrist approach, allowing funding only for research on surplus embryos from fertility treatments that parents have donated. The proposal continues to ban funding for research on embryos that were created specifically for research purposes.

The new guidelines would also continue to ban research on cloned embryos, which some scientists have argued is an important and necessary area of study. For certain diseases, they argue, the treatment — which clones an embryo from the patient being treated and uses its stem cells to grow replacement tissues — would prevent the patient’s body from rejecting the tissues.

But many bioethicists have said such so-called “therapeutic cloning” is far too morally risky an endeavor, and public support for it lags far behind support for stem-cell research on surplus embryos from fertility treatments.

–Robert Marus is managing editor and Washington bureau chief for Associated Baptist Press.

Related ABP story:

Obama ends Bush restrictions on embryonic stem-cell study (3/9)

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (ABP) — Protestant pastors are sending a mixed message about the environment and climate change, according to a new survey by LifeWay Research.

In a survey of 1,002 clergy last October, 47 percent agreed and 47 percent disagreed with a statement, "I believe global warming is real and manmade." The remaining 6 percent said they don't know.

Belief in global warming varied widely by denomination. Three fourths of pastors in mainline denominations agreed with the statement, while just 32 percent of evangelical pastors subscribe to the global-warming theory.

A recent Gallup Poll found that a majority of Americans believe global warming is real, but a record-high 41 percent said the seriousness of the threat is exaggerated by the media.

A 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared evidence of global warming "unequivocal" and said with "very high confidence" that at least some of the change is attributed to human activity.

Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.) said in a recent on-line chat the media contribute to confusion over global warming by depicting it as a scientific debate.

"For most of us who have to actually make policy and spend precious taxpayer money on things that will make a difference, the science is settled," she said.

"I think the challenge for media is to use the science and the facts and for us to challenge them," Edwards said. "I'm hopeful that while the old talking heads are still singing the 'anti-science' tune, most of America doesn’t really believe it."

–Bob Allen is senior writer for Associated Baptist Press.

WASHINGTON (RNS)—Advisers tapped to help guide the White House’s revamped faith-based office say their role still is evolving as the initiative expands its portfolio and tries to find its footing in the young Obama administration.

The overhaul of the office centers on an expanded mission to go beyond matching faith-based groups with government funds, advisory council members said in recent interviews. One of the biggest changes is asking religious leaders to help shape policy on a number of hot-button social issues, including abortion.

“The sense that you have is that there’s really somebody who is listening to what you have to say and will take it into consideration,” said Vashti McKenzie, who oversees African Methodist Episcopal congregations in Tennessee and Kentucky.

The council is charged with helping shape policy in four areas—economic recovery, abortion reduction, interfaith dialogue and responsible fatherhood. McKenzie, for example, plans to focus her work on the fatherhood program.

Other advisers said they were given a courtesy heads-up as Obama drafted his executive order permitting federal funding of stem cell research, or his nomination of Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius as Health and Human Services secretary.

When some members expressed concern about proposed reductions in charitable deductions or rescinding conscience protections for healthcare workers, the White House responded with explanations, they said.

Former Southern Baptist Convention President Frank Page, one of the advisers, said he has been surprised at the rapid pace of some policy decisions—many of which he has disagreed with—but believes his views were heard when he questioned the plan to rescind conscience protections for healthcare workers.

“I felt like there was some listening and some response in that particular issue,” he said.

Richard Stearns, president of the evangelical relief agency World Vision and a member of the advisory council, said the panel seems to have two roles—serving as “a council of elders” that can offer their expertise to the White House and also representing their constituents to decision-makers.

“I think there’s a broader tent, if you will, in this group,” he said. “President Bush’s faith-based office, right or wrong, was associated with evangelicals within the faith community. I think this group is broader.”

One aspect of the Bush office—partnering faith-based and community groups with federal funds—remains intact, but advisers stress they’re not making the decisions on who is or isn’t funded.

Melissa Rogers, director of the Center for Religion and Public Affairs at Wake Forest University’s School of Divinity, is an adviser and has written a form letter to respond to the “scores” of people who contacted her thinking she has a role in giving out grants.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)—Despite any popular doomsday predictions, most Americans aren’t concerned the end of the world will occur in their lifetimes, according to a new study by LifeWay Research.

Only 11 percent of 1,600 people who participated in a survey on the topic said they agree with statement, “I believe that the world will end in my lifetime,” LifeWay Christian Resources reported.

“Many religions predict a time when the world will end, be recreated or experience some cataclysmic transition,” Ed Stetzer, president of LifeWay Research, said. “For others, that is not a religious issue but based on concerns from the environment to nuclear war. However, the belief that ‘the end is near’ is not that widespread, with a strong majority disagreeing with the statement.”

The study found Americans with higher incomes are less likely to believe the world will end soon: 71 percent of people making $100,000 or more disagree that the world will end in their lifetimes. Meanwhile, 53 percent of those making $25,000 or less disagree with the scenario, while 15 percent agree.

LifeWay Research found 10 percent of married people agree the world will end in their lifetimes, compared with 14 percent of singles and 13 percent of those living with their partners.

Older Americans are more skeptical than any other age group that the world will end before they die, LifeWay Research reported, noting 71 percent of those 65 and older disagree with the idea.

Americans between the ages of 25 and 34 are more likely than any other group to agree the world might end while they still are living. Only 50 percent of those surveyed disagree that the end of the world will come in their lifetimes, while 17 percent agree.

Men are more skeptical than women about the world ending in their lifetimes, 69 percent compared to 51 percent, LifeWay Research said. Also, those with more formal education are more skeptical of the idea. When race is considered, African Americans are most likely to believe the world will end in their lifetimes, according to the study.

Six months into what pundits have dubbed “the Great Recession,” some Texas Baptist churches and institutions report belt-tightening measures, but few are ready to push the panic button.

As of March 31, the Baptist General Convention of Texas treasurer’s office reported $10,138,869 in Cooperative Program receipts—the lowest first-quarter total posted in recent history.

Year-to-date receipts are at 88.9 percent of the $11,406,798 budget requirement, and 3.6 percent less than the $10,519,752 received during the same period last year.

In comparison, BGCT Cooperative Program receipts during the first quarter of 2007 totaled $11,291,584. Looking back, BGCT Cooperative Program receipts during the first quarter of 2006 totaled $11,223,155; in 2005, they totaled $10,699,978; and in 2004, they totaled $10,974,836.

BGCT investments at year-end 2008 were valued at $88.3 million, compared to $124.3 million on Dec. 31, 2007, BGCT Treasurer Jill Larsen reported.

The BGCT Executive Board staff is in the process of summarizing and analyzing budget revisions, she said.

“Everyone has re-evaluated their 2009 budget, striving for a 90 percent level. In some areas, this is difficult due to a higher proportion of wages and other fixed costs,” Larsen said. “I believe staff understands the economic environment and is working diligently to constrain their spending.”

While economists speak of a global recession, the economic downturn in Texas—and its impact on church offerings—appears more affected by local realities. Some congregations report above-average receipts; others have cut budgets. Many simply are exercising caution, waiting to see what the next few months hold.

One suburban church north of Dallas cut its budget 23 percent, laid off its minister of education and filled other staff positions—office manager, youth minister and children’s minister—with lay volunteers.

The congregation’s pastor—who asked that his church not be identified by name—and its associate pastor both voluntarily took 10 percent cuts in salary.

“We take in a large percentage of our income in year-end gifts that normally are tied to stocks, and we were down $180,000 in December,” the pastor explained.

The church currently operates on an “essentials-only spending plan” to protect remaining staff and to maintain ministry and missions support, he added.

In contrast, First Baptist Church of Lufkin ended 2008 with a $160,000 budget surplus and received about $800,000 total receipts above budget—including some estate gifts—in spite of having to cancel services one week due to Hurricane Ike, Pastor Andy Pittman noted.

“Our folks came through in November and December,” he said, noting $420,000 in undesignated receipts in December.

Layoffs in Northeast Texas 

In Northeast Texas, U.S. Steel idled its pipe plant at Lone Star and decided to lay off most of its workers, affecting 14 or 15 families at nearby First Baptist Church in Daingerfield.

“It really hasn’t shown up yet clearly in our church offerings. They are holding steady,” Pastor Tim Wade said. “God’s people are continuing to be very faithful, and we haven’t had to curtail ministries or activities.”

However, Wade added, some of the steel plant employees received severance packages or unemployment compensation that will cease in a matter of months.

Noting that other major employers in the area—such as chicken processing plants around Mount Pleasant and Pittsburg—also are experiencing tough times, job prospects in the region are limited, he said.

“If things don’t improve, it could move from stressful to catastrophic,” Wade said. “A lot depends on what happens in the next three to six months. If it worsens, we need to be geared up and ready for whatever the Lord calls us to do.”

BGCT-affiliated institutions offered mixed news about giving trends in recent months, but most report the market value of endowment funds are about 30 percent lower at the end of the first quarter of 2009 than at the same time last year.

Dallas Baptist University 

“We are doing our best to make it through this difficult economic situation without making layoffs,” Dallas Baptist University President Gary Cook said.

To date, DBU is operating within its means and has not had to cut any staff. But to help faculty and staff whose spouses have lost jobs, the university has set aside $80,000 for a loan fund. Zero-interest loans of up to $4,000 each will be made available at the discretion of a loan committee chaired by Cindy Pettit, director of the DBU intercessory prayer ministry.

At Houston Baptist University, the economic tsunami hit while the school still was recovering from a hurricane that seriously damaged its campus. But in a sense, adjustments the university made following Hurricane Ike prepared HBU for the economic downturn, according to President Robert Sloan.

“We deliberately held back tuition increases because of the hurricane,” Sloan said. “The vast majority of our students—about 90 percent—come from a five-county area around Houston, and we knew Houstonians would be hurting. So, we’ve taken a more cautious route.”

Recessions are an unfortunate “part of the journey of American life,” said Wayland Baptist University President Paul Armes. “While our endowment has decreased in book value from previous years, we have just concluded more than 15 years of significant resource growth. Additionally, much of Way-land’s endowment is in real property, which continues to grow in value and produce excellent endowment returns.”

In response to the economic downturn, Wayland is “budgeting very carefully and spending very conservatively,” intensifying its recruiting efforts and “working very hard to maintain … advancement connections and build new relationships,” he said.

University of Mary Hardin-Baylor

The University of Mary Hardin-Baylor expects overall endowed scholarship awards to decrease about 25 percent from 2008-2009 levels, compared to a typical 8 percent growth, President-elect Randy O’Rear said.

“To maintain and strengthen our student tuition discount rate, UMHB is making up the difference by allocating more institutional budget funds to scholarships. In other words, any shortfalls that we expected the endowment to cover will still be available to our students, but in the form of UMHB scholarship funds from our operating budget,” O’Rear explained.

“Although our endowments are taking a hit on their investment performance, our overall endowment earnings represent a very small portion of our annual expenditures—just under 5 percent. If we had a larger reliance on our endowment, we would be faced with a much bigger current challenge.”

At East Texas Baptist University, trustees approved a 6.5 percent increase in the school’s operating budget for the next academic year, and the school has increased its student scholarship bud-get for next year.

“This budget included no raises but also avoided a reduction in force,” ETBU President Bob Riley said.

Howard Payne University increased institutional scholarships by 10.8 percent to help families of students entering next fall, and the school is continuing its scholarships for full-time students already enrolled, said Brad Johnson, vice president for enrollment and student services.

“While our endowment income has dropped dramatically, and income from the Baptist General Convention of Texas will be cut by $255,000, we are working hard to reduce costs and enhance revenue streams as we strive to run our educational program in a fiscally sound manner. We are planning prudently to weather the national economic storm,” Johnson said.

Hardin-Simmons University 

At Hardin-Simmons University, trustees approved a 4.4 percent budget increase for the 2009-2010 school year, including a 2 percent merit raise for faculty and staff.

“HSU projects as of May 31, 2009, the operating budget will have a small surplus,” said Shane Davidson, vice president for enrollment management. Endowments and similar funds decreased 20 percent—$24.3 million—from end of the first quarter in 2008 to the same time this year, he reported.

Baptist University of the Americas decided to hold the line on tuition and continue to offer housing at below market rates, President Rene Maciel said.

“We looked at raising tuition but realized immediately that we simply couldn’t—not and still be true to the unique call we feel God has mandated for Baptist University of the Americas,” Maciel said.

Baylor University publicly reports the total market value of its endowment only once a year, said John Barry, vice president for marketing and communication. The National Association of College & University Business Officers Endowment Study, released in January, reported Baylor’s 2008 endowment assets at $1.059 billion, a 4.1 increase over the previous year. Baylor ranked No. 70 out of the 791 schools tracked by the association.

While Baylor’s endowment has declined in value, the school’s diversified portfolio has minimized the potential impact of the market, Barry noted. For example, at the close of business Sept. 29, when the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 7 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 8.8 percent and the NASDAQ lost 9.1 percent, the decrease in Baylor’s endowment that day was 1.9 percent, university officials reported last fall.

“In terms of gifts received during the first quarter, we presently are tracking ahead of one year ago at the same time, and last year we ended slightly better than the average year,” Barry said, noting Baylor received $45 million in gifts in 2008.

Baylor has received a record number of applications for admission, and deposits received are roughly equal to last year, he added.

Children and family ministries 

Texas Baptist ministries to children and families stressed the continued faithfulness of donors in tight economic times.

“Buckner International continues to enjoy strong giving in 2009, despite the lagging economy,” President Ken Hall said. “I think, in part, much of this is due to two factors—the integrity of the fiscal policies we have in place at Buckner and the dedication of donors who support us. They’ve done a good job realizing that, because of the poor national economy, their gifts are more critical now than ever to helping others in need.”

The economic downturn has had little impact on Baptist Child & Family Services at this point, President Kevin Dinnin reported.

“BCFS is doing extremely well. We have a small endowment and consequently have very little dependency on that revenue stream. Gift income remains strong, and we are ahead of budget year-to-date,” Dinnin said.

In contrast, South Texas Children’s Home Ministries President Todd Roberson reported his institution is “in the same position as everyone else regarding the market situation and the substantial decline in our endowment values.”

Roberson expressed thanks for God’s provision in the past through his people, and he voiced confidence in that continued provision.

“Although we have noticed some decrease in the number of people giving, we are very grateful for the faithfulness of those still able to give generously,” he said. “Over and over, God has demonstrated to us that STCHM’s mission to reach hurting children and families is really his ministry, and he continues to meet our needs so we can continue to be his hands and feet to the children and families we serve.”

Children at Heart Ministries President Jerry Bradley likewise offered thanks for God’s blessings, saying his agency “continues to be encouraged and blessed by God’s faithfulness as reflected in the generosity of our donors and our staff’s commitment to service.”

“While total giving was down in the last quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, giving for operational expenses was about the same as it was a year ago. People have less money to give, but ministries to children and families will always have a place in personal giving,” Bradley said. “It is our goal to not reduce the quality or quantity of ministries to children and families that are now or will be in our care. In recognition of the current economic challenges, we are working … to examine all ministry expenses to identify steps that we can take to make sure we continue to live within our means.”

Some institutional leaders noted first-quarter reports offer only an early-warning signal. Later in the year, they said, their institutions will have a clearer picture of the economic downturn’s impact.

“Historically, the effect of an economic downturn is felt by nonprofits several months after it begins to affect the for-profit world,” said Hall, Buckner’s president. “I believe this summer will be a critical time for all nonprofit ministries, including our Texas Baptist institutions, as budgets are planned and priorities re-evaluated based on the economy and giving.”

LAKELAND, Fla. (RNS)—As many congregations grapple with declining contributions, some faith communities are following the lead of cash-strapped corporations by laying off employees. But the stakes are higher, congregational leaders say, when you’re putting someone’s spiritual leader out on the street.

Churches never have been good at this. “Terminal niceness” keeps congregations from dealing honestly with unneeded or ineffective staff members, former General Electric CEO Jack Welch told ministers recently.

Congregational leaders, meanwhile, say already-tough financial decisions can become excruciating when you are firing the person who performed your daughter’s wedding or held your hand in the hospital.

“Terminating employees, in business or in churches, is never an easy task,” said Phill Martin, deputy executive director of the Dallas-based National Association of Church Business Administration. But the task becomes immeasurably more complicated, he said, if church leaders and ministers are lowering the ax.

“When you live out of the values of ministry, it is more difficult to segregate the impact on the individuals’ and families’ lives than it is for most business people,” Martin explained. “It’s tough when your core value is: ‘I’m here to minister to people,’ and you become the author of that pain.”

Vacillation 

Instead, churches in financial crisis “get all flustered,” said congregational expert David Odom, executive vice president of Leadership Education at Duke Divinity School in Durham, N.C. Congregations typically vacillate “between cold, hard business facts and denial,” he said.

So far, most churches report only a modest impact from the recession. Six percent have cut salaries, and an additional 4 percent have cut staff, according to a recent survey by Southern Baptist-affiliated LifeWay Research. Another online survey, by NACBA, found that as many as 20 percent of churches have already laid off staff.

But because churches historically feel the pinch later than the general economy—worshippers tend to cut contributions only after everything else—observers worry many congregations are unprepared to deal with the worst church-budget crunch in more than 70 years.

“Nobody who is around now has any experience with declining resources,” said Odom, founder and former president of the Center for Congregational Health in Winston-Salem, N.C. “Every large church I know is trying to figure out how many people they can keep.”

Most churches will put off layoffs as long as possible, said George Bullard of Columbia, S.C., who like Martin consults with Christian churches of many denominations.

“Some churches, in order to keep all their staff, are deciding not to pay retirement for a year or shifting health insurance costs to employees,” said Bullard, a consultant in the Columbia Partnership.

Churches unprepared 

Other coping measures recently imposed by congregations include giving employees unpaid furloughs and shifting some staff to part-time status. But when firing employees finally becomes unavoidable, most churches are unprepared, Bullard and Martin said.

Particularly when it comes to dismissing underachieving or ill-matched employees, churches are notorious about evading the obvious, Welch noted. But being a church is “not a license to be lazy” about handling people, he said.

“You have a mission not to burden your people with a bad manager,” Welch exhorted Christian ministers and others attending a recent leadership conference at Southeastern University in Lakeland, Fla. “The idea you would run a nonprofit organization without the best people is crazy.”

Welch counseled ministers and businesspeople to tell employees the truth—good and bad—about their value to the organization.

Chicago-area megachurch pastor Bill Hybels, who appeared with Welch at Southeastern, agreed: “The kindest form of management is the truth.”

But church leaders should “speak the truth in love,” added Hybels, senior pastor Willow Creek Community Church. “You can’t brutalize people with the truth.”

Congregational consultants noted that what works for General Electric doesn’t always fit faith communities.

Many layers of relationship 

While a business may have stockholders, customers and employees, in a congregation “they’re all the same persons”—parishioners, ministers, finance committee members, babysitters, counselors and counselees, Bullard noted. “There are so many layers of relationship,” he said.

It’s hard for a church member to accept a staff firing when “you are ending a relationship with a person I love,” he said. A layoff eliminates not just an organizational leader but often a spiritual mentor and friend, he noted.

While those overlapping relationships give congregations their unique character, they pose risks when good personnel practices are not in place, said NACBA’s Martin.

“When churches manage out of relationship, not performance, there are some inherent problems,” he warned.

Congregations that let relationships—not policies and performance—steer employment practices sometimes allow friendships to blur supervisory lines, for instance. Or, he said, they “see hiring employees as a ministry,” by hiring people who lose or can’t find a job, have relatives in the church or know certain people.

What a congregation does before a crisis hits—specifically its personnel practices, both good and bad—largely determines how well it weathers a financial storm, experts said. Among those practices: clear job descriptions and lines of supervision, specific job expectations and regular performance evaluations that are not tied solely to financial compensation.

“The systems and structures that produce strong churches in good economic times serve churches well in bad economic times,” Martin said.