STEVE MURDOCK: Demographic guru_110804
Posted: 11/05/04
STEVE MURDOCK: Demographic guru
Texas has become the second most-populous state in the nation and is growing by the minute with great implications for church starting and church growth. No one in the state is more aware of what is happening than the state's demographer, Steve Murdock, who heads the Texas State Data Center and the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at the University of Texas-San Antonio. A native of North Dakota, Murdock is a graduate of North Dakota State University and earned master's and doctor of philosophy degrees at the University of Kentucky. He is a member of Phi Beta Kappa. He is the author of 11 books, more than 120 technical articles and book chapters, 125 research reports and monographs and 70 popular articles on the determinants and consequences of demographic, socioeconomic and natural resource changes.
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| Steve Murdock |
Q.
What is the history of the Texas Data Center and the office of the state demographer?
The state data center program started in 1979 in Texas. We have been the primary agency in terms of providing technical support and information since then. We provide direct information through our cells and affiliates to about 50,000 people a year. We provide direct access through our website to another 2.5 million real users, who go to the site and download data from it. In fact, we download about 2.5 gigabytes a day. About 50 percent are public and 50 percent are private users.
Q.
Who are the largest users of your data?
About 50 percent are public, from legislators to state agencies to local cities, towns, communities. On the private side are corporations from across the country. For example, supermarket chains use it to learn where the population is expanding so they can tell where to place their stores. We have a number of nonprofits who use it, such as Little League who use it to discern districts for specific teams in specific cities.
We have a tremendous variety of uses of our data, both in the public and private sectors. Perhaps the major part of our data, in addition to census data, is we do estimates and projections for the state of Texas. We do estimates yearly and biennial projections that are used by virtually all state agencies to do facility, personnel and budgetary planning.
Q
How do you gather the data?
The census data is provided by the Bureau of the Census. But we collect data on annexations of every city and town in Texas. We obtain data, both city and county, on housing and building permits and occupancy permits and data on school enrollment as another way to estimate population. We use factors we have seen as symptomatic of population change, like school enrollment, housing permits, vehicle registrations, births, deaths–a wide variety of factors. We do estimates for all 254 counties and about 1,500 places, towns and cities every year, and every other year we do projections for the state and counties.
Q.
When was the office of the state demographer created?
The office of the state demographer was created recently, but we have been doing the duties of that office for years. In 2001, a bill was introduced by Sen. West of Coleman to create the office. The bill specified the lieutenant governor and speaker of the House would nominate the person, and the governor would make the appointment. Gov. Perry made the appointment. It recognized some things we were already doing and gave it official status. Part of the reason was federal agencies were seeking information and didn't know where to go. By creating the office, it centralized the location and let people know where to go for their information.
Q.
Who was doing the work of your office and the data center before 1979?
No one. There had been no ongoing population projections before 1979.
Q
Why was your office moved from Texas A&M to the University of Texas at San Antonio in January?
They made us a better offer in terms of resources and visibility, and part of it was simply location. We are able to do more with large businesses in a large metropolitan area than we were able to do in Bryan/College Station. Being in a metropolitan area increases our ability to work with the private sector.
Q.
What is your principal assignment?
No one says this is exactly what you are supposed to do, but people depend on us to be able to provide them with the most recent data on demographic matters. They assume they can call us and ask for the most recent data on the number of children, or elderly or total population. We also do the estimates in the projections, which are used for budgetary and other kinds of planning and purposes. Another thing we do is selected policy analysis with demographic data.
Probably most people know of our work about a decade ago called The Texas Challenge and more recently The New Texas Challenge. Everything we do has a demographic component. We don't claim to be economists or something other than what we are. But what we do in the policy work is try to trace what the implications of demographic change are for other other factors for state services, for income levels, for educational levels, etc. We are not policy makers; we are policy informers. We provide information for the policy makers that they can use in their deliberations. Our job is to provide information and let them use it in ways they see fit.
Q
How large is your staff and do you have offices in other areas.
Our direct staff here in San Antonio is about 14 people, the majority of which are supported not by state appropriations but by grants and contracts we have with various entities.
We do have a network of nearly 50 other entities in the state that disseminate information.
Nearly all of the 24 councils of governments, many small business institutes and universities are part of the network.
The idea of the network is to provide access in closer proximity to the users, so that if I am in Lubbock I can go to Texas Tech, our Plains affiliate, and get information and not have to get it from our San Antonio office, although that is much easier today with Internet capabilities. But if they want to sit down and talk to someone about data items, they can do it with someone who is close.
All those entities cooperate with the program at no cost to the state of Texas. Most do it to have access to the information and to serve their clienteles.
Q.
How did you personally get involved in demographics?
I have a bachelor's degree from North Dakota State University. I am originally from North Dakota but I have been in Texas for 27 years. I received a master's and doctor of philosophy degree at the University of Kentucky. When I went to Kentucky, I met a very dynamic professor who was a demographer and helped me begin to see what demography was and what it could do. Like most academics, in terms of their field, I fell in love with my discipline by seeing what it studied, which was intrinsically interesting to me.
And very important for me was the aspect of what it could do and how it could be used by people in the real world, so to speak.
Q.
Give me an example of how demographics affect our lives as Texas citizens.
Lots of different ways. A good example is that the aging of the Baby Boomer population, those born between 1946 and 1964, will create and are creating in the next decade the largest number of elderly people we have ever had.
What that means for any Texan, whether through state or federal programs, is the amount we will be spending for long-term care, for medical care, will increase dramatically.
This is the first generation that is larger than the generation coming up behind it and in a sense is the first generation that will have larger numbers using services than are paying for services. That is clearly a demographic factor that affects not only that generation but generations of others, because as we age, our health needs go up.
Another way is that as the characteristics of the populations change, educational levels change and the need, use and cost of state services change. Demographics, as some people say, is not destiny but is certainly a major determinant in our society.
Q.
Is the study of demographics changing?
Yes and no. There are some basic elements we have always studied, such as the major processes that change population, such as fertility, mortality, migration and immigration. I think what is changing is that demographers are looking at the implications, not just the demographic implications, such as how many will be elderly but what that will mean for health care and Social Security and long-term care needs.
Q.
Is this a growing field?
It is. There are somewhere between 4,000 and 6,000 demographers in the field, but the real growth is in the interface of demography with things like health care. Many hospitals, for instance, have demographers who are helping them look at the area they serve. Many large school districts have demographers on staff helping them discern attendance zones and capital facilities needs. There is substantial growth in marketing firms, because one of things that demographers look at that is an absolute key to many companies is how many people are likely to transition into pension plans. It is a growing area. Demographers are being used more and more by universities, federal and state governments and then across the different dimensions of the private sector.
Q.
How could a church or association or convention of churches use the services your office provides?
A number of such organizations have used us to learn how fast their communities may be growing or changing. Many also use us for long-term planning to look at characteristics of people who might be of their denomination or of the characteristics of the growing population to see if there is a need to reach out to the new groups. They look at the population growth in terms of the services they are providing and if they need to offer new services.
Many churches use us to gauge how well they are doing, in a sense. They look at their churches and our data and see if they are growing like the area or faster or slower than the population growth and if they are offering a full range of services to the overall population or to just segments. If you want to look at the future and growth, you have to look at the characteristics of the growing population and how well you are able to address their spiritual needs.
Q.
Are you a church member and does your church utilize your services?
I am a church member, and I know my church uses data but would not use me directly.
Q.
What role has religious faith played in your life?
I am an average religious person. The key role played through my parents has been in establishing in me honesty and integrity, as well as the need to serve others, to do more in life than assist our own cause and betterment, but also contribute to society and fellow people. My membership is at a Lutheran church. We haven't decided on one in San Antonio.
Interview by Toby Druin


